MUMBAI: Indian government bond yields are expected to trade little changed early on Wednesday, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later in the day.
The benchmark 10-year yield is likely to trade in a 7.06%-7.11% range, following its previous close of 7.0981% on Tuesday, a trader with a private bank said.
“We are unlikely to see any major activity today, as all eyes are focused on the language and the guidance from the Fed, especially the updated dot plot,” the trader said.
The Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision after Indian market hours, on the back of data which highlighted resilience and elevated inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economy.
While no rate action is expected, traders keenly await guidance on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts in 2024, with many fearing that policymakers may reduce their expectations to two rate cuts from three.
The odds of a cut in June have eased below 60% from around 70% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US Treasury yields stayed elevated, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.30% handle. Meanwhile, the consistent rise in oil prices is negative for Indian bonds, as elevated commodity prices could seep into domestic retail inflation.
Rising US yields, record state debt sale to nudge Indian bond yields up
The Reserve Bank of India has hinted it would consider rate cuts only once retail inflation eases closer to 4% target on a sustainable basis.
The upside in bond yields is expected to be capped as state-run banks have turned buyers in the secondary market, traders said.
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