CANBERRA/PARIS: Chicago soybean futures regained some ground on Thursday but remained near their lowest since December 2021 amid lacklustre demand for US exports and an improved South American supply outlook.
Corn futures rose but were close to their lowest since December 2020. Wheat also gained.
The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.7% at $12.44-3/4 a bushel by 1240 GMT after slipping to $12.34 on Tuesday.
Traders are awaiting market guidance from this Friday’s quarterly USDA grain stocks report. The data often sets the tone for grain and oilseed markets through the first part of the year, though the sheer volume of data can make it hard to decipher what truly moves the market on that day.
Recent rains mean Brazil’s harvest will be better than previously feared while Argentina’s will also be sizeable, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia, adding that the wider oilseed market was well supplied.
The price outlook for soybeans was “neutral or bearish”, Pistoia said.
With harvesting now under way, crop agency Conab projected a 155.3 million metric ton 2023/24 crop, about 5 million tons less than previously forecast but still a record high.
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange raised its estimate for the 2023/24 soybean harvest by 2 million tons to 52 million tons.
On the demand side, concern is growing over weak US export sales. It has been weeks since the USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans or corn.
US soybean exports this season are well behind last year, with cheaper Brazilian beans dominating the market.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soybeans on Wednesday while buying corn and wheat, traders said.
CBOT corn was up 0.1% at $4.60 a bushel after falling as low as $4.52 on Monday and Tuesday. Prices have been pushed down by a record US crop.
Conab said Brazil’s production would fall to 117.6 million tons and its exports would decline to 35 million tons this season from 56 million tons in the previous season.
However, Argentina’s 2023/24 corn harvest should reach a record 59 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said, raising its forecast by 3 million tons.
Wheat was down 0.25% at $6.09-1/4 a bushel.
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