US natgas futures slip on rising output, low LNG exports

US natural gas futures slipped on Tuesday as output slowly rose and liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) remained at their lowest since early 2018 due to a global hit to demand from the coronavirus pandemic.

Traders noted prices were down despite forecasts for more hot weather and higher cooling demand over the next two weeks and an increase in pipeline exports to Canada and Mexico.

Front-month gas futures fell 2.1 cents, or 1.2%, to $1.718 per million British thermal units at 7:50 a.m. EDT (1150 GMT).

Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 US states averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.

Refinitiv forecast US demand, including exports, will rise from 90.4 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week. That was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.

Pipeline gas flowing to US LNG export plants averaged just 3.2 bcfd (33% utilization) so far in July, down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport in Texas held at zero for an eighth straight day for the first time since July 2019 when the first of its three liquefaction trains was in test mode.

US pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in neighboring countries cranked up their air conditioners.

Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in June, but still below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 5.5 bcfd this month, up from 5.4 bcfd in June, but below the record 5.6 bcfd in March.