US jobless claims data points to labour improvement

New US claims for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week but hovered near levels normally associated with improving labour market conditions, in a hopeful sign for the struggling economy. Initial claims for state jobless aid climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labour Department said, from 395,000 the prior week.
--- Retailers ring up solid September
That left claims holding steady around the 400,000 mark, which is usually regarded as consistent with some improvement in the jobs market, for a second week. Economists, who had expected claims to rise to 410,000, saw this as yet another sign the ailing economy was not falling back into recession.
"Claims suggest that layoffs remain contained despite high uncertainty in the economy. We continue to expect moderate growth rather than a recession," said Guy Berger, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. The data falls outside the survey period for the government's closely watched employment report for September, which will be released on Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased 60,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey, after being flat in August. The gain in nonfarm employment will mostly reflect the return of 45,000 striking Verizon Communications workers to payrolls. The jobless rate is seen steady at 9.1 percent.
However, reports by US retailers on Thursday suggested back-to-school sales were brisk last month, and 23 US retailers posted an average sales gain of 5.1 percent at stores open at least a year, according to Thomson Reuters. Analysts were anticipating a 4.6 percent rise.
Data ranging from manufacturing to motor vehicle sales have also suggested that the economy, which expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, could avoid an outright contraction in output. While the weak labour market remains the Achilles heel of the recovery, an even bigger threat is looming from Europe's debt crisis. Economists warn troubles in the eurozone could push the US economy into a new recession.
Although the labour market stalled in August, it appears to have regained some footing in late September. The four-week moving average of initial claims - considered a better measure of labour market trends - fell for a second week. "If initial jobless claims continue to trend lower that would be an encouraging sign that labour market conditions may be improving," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped to its lowest level since July in the week ended September 24. A total of 6.86 million Americans were claiming unemployment benefits during the week ended September 17 under all programs, down 123,009 from the prior week.