Vietnam's 2011-12 arabica output to rise 25 percent

Vietnam's arabica output in the 2011/2012 crop year is forecast to rise by a quarter from the previous season to 50,000 tonnes, or 833,000 bags, thanks to an increase in both planting area and average yields, a leading exporter said on Monday. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee but its arabica production is tiny compared with global producers.
Still, higher arabica output plus a small amount of beans coming from neighbouring Laos could serve as an alternative supply for trading firms and roasters. "Arabica prices did not suffer a fall like robusta prices last year, so investment has been good," said Nguyen Van An, Chief Executive of Thai Hoa Vietnam Group The price of fresh arabica cherries has risen around 50 percent this year, giving good support to growers, An noted.
On Monday arabica cherries rose to between 10,000 dong and 12,000 dong (48.0-57.6 US cents) per kg in key growing areas, from 7,000-8,000 dong last year, farmers and dealers said. Vietnamese firms could export 40,000 tonnes of arabica during the season, 60 percent higher from the previous year, of which Thai Hoa Vietnam would ship 18,000-20,000 tonnes, up from 12,000 tonnes in the 2010/2011 season, An said.
Vietnam's new coffee crop year began on Saturday and lasts through September 2012. Robusta harvest usually begins in late October while picking arabica starts in July or August. An's forecast of Vietnam's arabica output is above an estimate by the US Department of Agriculture from June that forecast output to rise to 667,000 bags in the 2011/2012 crop, from 583,000 bags in the previous season.
The price of robusta coffee could fall next year on ample stocks, even as prices of higher quality arabicas are expected to stay firm on tighter supplies, International Coffee Organisation Executive Director Jose Sette said in August. December arabica coffee futures on ICE were off 1.05 percent at $2.265 per lb at 1141 GMT after closing last Friday at $2.289 per lb, the weakest settlement for the spot contract since December 20.
"The harvest this year is a little bit behind schedule because of rains during the flowering period," An said. He did not make any price forecasts. By early October 2010, farmers in Vietnam's northern province of Son La had harvested 30-40 percent of their arabica crop, while this year they have just started the harvesting, An said.