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Markets

Soybeans prices fall on bumper Brazil crop forecasts

Published Updated

imageLONDON: Chicago soybean futures were lower on Friday as an improving crop outlook in Brazil threatened to curb US exports while corn and wheat prices also eased.

The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.6 percent at $10.05-1/4 a bushel at 1203 GMT and was on track for a weekly loss of 3.1 percent.

The soybean market is facing headwinds as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a monthly report on Thursday increased its forecast for Brazil's 2016/17 soybean harvest to a record high 108 million tonnes, from 104 million in February.

"While output expectations were record-high, a 108 million tonne output caught the market off-guard and is driving a short-term bearish reaction," Rabobank said in a market note.

The agency also cut its estimate of US 2016/17 soybean exports, citing competition from the Brazilian crop, and raised its forecast of US soy year-ending stocks to 435 million bushels, above an average of analyst estimates.

Brazil's agricultural statistics agency Conab on Thursday raised its estimate for the country's 2016/17 soybean crop to 107.6 million tonnes, more than 2 million tonnes above its previous forecast.

"Soybean crop yields out of South America are looking very good. All those weather concerns that we had earlier are gone," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.

Corn prices were also lower as the USDA upped its estimates of corn output in Brazil and Argentina.

"While these weighty figures pressure prices, we remain aware of the weather risk that still remains for the second Brazil safrinha crop, which is currently being planted," Rabobank said.

The USDA raised its forecast of global 2016/17 corn ending stocks to 220.68 million tonnes, above an average of trade expectations and up from 217.56 million last month.

CBOT's most active corn contract was down 0.5 percent at $3.65-1/4 a bushel and was on course for a weekly loss of 4.1 percent.

Wheat prices were dragged down by weakness in corn and soybeans with CBOT's most-active contract off 0.2 percent at $4.43 a bushel and on track for a weekly loss of 2.3 percent.

Dealers said forecasts calling for much-needed moisture in the Plains also weighed on prices.

May milling wheat in Paris was down 0.3 percent at 174 euros a tonne.

Copyright Reuters, 2017

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