MUMBAI: Higher palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia in the second half of 2011 and the financial crisis in the developed world could pull down crude palm oil prices by 4.7 percent in the next three months, a leading analyst said.
Palm oil prices could hit 2,850 Malaysian ringgits per tonne and soyoil prices in Argentina could drop to $1,100 per tonne, Thomas Mielke, editor of Oil World, told the Globoil 2011 conference.
Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) closed 0.56 percent lower at 2,992 ringgits per tonne on Friday as commodity markets fell on prospects of a global economic slowdown eroding commodity demand growth.
Vegetable oil prices are likely to strengthen again in the first half of 2012 as palm oil production growth slows down, Mielke said.
Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers, is estimated to rise by 1.9 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes and by 1.6 million tonnes to 18.6 million tonnes respectively in 2011, he said.
In 2012 palm oil production in Malaysia is likely to rise by just 0.3-0.4 million tonnes, while Indonesia may post another healthy rise in production of 1.7-1.9 million tonnes over 2011 production.
Sunflower oil prices have fallen by $90 per tonne in the past three weeks, making it attractive for Indian buyers.
"India has started to buy large volumes of sun oil and may import 0.9-1.0 million tonnes in 2011/12," he said.
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