Business & Finance

Interest rate futures rise after Fed announces QE3

Published Updated

Previously, the central bank had called for exceptionally low rates through late 2014.

Interest rate futures trade was choppy in the aftermath of the Fed statement at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, but as of Thursday afternoon the futures pointed to the first chance of a rate increase in October 2014.

October 2014 fed fund futures were trading 3 basis points higher at 99.745 from 99.715 late Wednesday.

Rate futures contract prices rise when traders push farther into the future their expectations for when the Fed will first hike rates.

"The Fed seems to be on hold today longer than ever," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.

Meanwhile, the amount of seasonally adjusted US commercial paper outstanding shrank for a second consecutive week in the week ended Sept. 12, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the size of the US commercial paper market shrank $6.6 billion to $1.015 trillion in the week, according to the latest Fed data.

US non-seasonally adjusted commercial paper outstanding fell $11.8 billion to $972.8 billion.

US non-seasonally adjusted foreign bank commercial paper outstanding fell $2.6 billion to $190.9 billion, the latest Fed data showed.

In Europe, Euribor bank-to-bank lending rates hit new all-time lows on Thursday as expectations persisted that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months after it downgraded its economic outlook for the euro zone.

The ECB kept its main refinancing interest rate at a record low of 0.75 percent last week, but said the euro zone economy would probably contract more than it had previously expected this year.

Euribor rates have fallen significantly since the late last year when the ECB started flooding money markets with cheap long-term loans. The fall continued on Thursday.

Three-month Euribor rates, traditionally the main gauge of unsecured bank-to-bank lending, fell to 0.252 percent from 0.255 percent.

Six-month Euribor rates also fell, to 0.493 percent from 0.496 percent. Shorter-term one-week rates edged down to 0.087 percent from 0.088 percent while Eonia overnight rates ticked up to 0.101 percent from 0.100 percent.

Dollar-priced three-month bank-to-bank Euribor lending rates fell to 0.632 percent from 0.660 percent while overnight dollar rates remained at 0.305 percent.

The ECB's move to stop paying interest on banks' deposits has prompted banks to make stronger use of the current account facility, which still pays 0.75 percent interest for the required reserves.

A Reuters poll showed on Monday that 21 out of 26 participating traders said the ECB would not cut its deposit rate below zero this year, a move that would in effect charge banks to park excess funds with the ECB.

A total of 315 billion euros was parked in the ECB's deposit facility overnight. Banks' current account deposits at the ECB rose to 551 billion euros.

Euribor rates are fixed daily by the Banking Federation of the European Union (FBE).

Copyright Reuters, 2012