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Markets

Sterling treads water ahead of BoE minutes

Published Updated

The minutes from the BoE's June MPC meeting, released at 0830 GMT, will be scrutinised to see whether there has been any change in the number of members voting for further quantitative easing (QE).

More quantitative easing is usually considered bearish for the currency as it increases the supply of pounds in the system.

Against the dollar, sterling was flat at $1.5725, retaining gains from Tuesday when it hit a one-month high of $1.5757. The dollar was under broad pressure on expectations of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

"Increased risk appetite has pushed sterling towards its 200-day moving average level at $1.5753. If this continues the next target would be the 76.4 percent Fibonacci level at $1.6058," said Lex van Dam, hedge fund manager at Hampstead Capital, which manages $500 million of assets.

  The euro traded down 0.1 percent at 80.57 pence with traders citing offers at 80.50 and 81 pence. The euro could bounce if the BoE minutes signalled more easing.

 Forecasters see one less MPC member voting to maintain the central bank's QE programme at current levels, with a vote count of 7-2 predicted versus 8-1 in May.

"We're very much in line with consensus. What we're expecting is the vote is 7-2, with (Adam) Posen moving to join (David) Miles and voting for more QE but the majority voting against extending QE at this stage," said Sara Yates, currency strategist at Barclays Capital.

Strengthening the case for more stimulus by the BoE, Tuesday's UK inflation numbers came in softer than expected, with CPI falling to 2.8 percent on the year.

UK labour market data, due at 0830 GMT, will also be of interest, with May claimant count seen falling by 3,000, after a 13,700 drop in April, and April's ILO unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 8.2 percent.

Against a background of fresh flare-ups in the debt crisis in the euro zone, the UK's biggest trading partner, some analysts think the BoE could opt for aggressive asset purchases as soon as early next month.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King said in a keynote speech last week that the euro zone was casting a "black cloud" over the UK economy, making a case for more QE.

Whilst the BoE minutes will command attention, analysts said price action was likely to be dominated by the outcome of a US Federal Reserve two-day monetary policy-setting meeting, which concludes Wednesday, with the potential for a further liquidity injection likely to support riskier assets and sterling.

Traders said the dollar was likely to struggle in the near term on expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease policy before the BoE.

"I think the market is really looking at what comes out of the Fed later on today... There are some in the market who have been looking for the Fed to really start printing money more aggressively at this stage, and I think that's why cable is where it is today," Yates said.