The 22-day moving average price of Brent, Dubai and Cinta on June 19 was 4.2 percent lower than the level on June 7, surpassing a 4 percent trigger point set by the government, data from C1 Energy showed on Wednesday.
But the government may only consider such a move early in July, about a month after Beijing's last cut on June 9, under the current 1-month review period.
Brent crude slipped under $96 a barrel on Wednesday, staying close to 17-month lows hit the previous session, as worries over Spain's deep borrowing costs lingered ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
C1 Energy is one of a number of groups that tries to mirror the calculations of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which sets fuel prices in the world's second-largest consuming country.
The NDRC has said it considers changing fuel prices if the 22-day moving average of international crude oil prices rises or falls 4 percent. It also takes in account other factors such as inflation, fuel supply and demand.
However, it has never disclosed its daily calculations, or given the crude grades it uses or their weightings since introducing the pricing formula in 2009.
China has been considering changes to the current fuel pricing scheme to better reflect refining costs, with plans to lower the trigger point, shorten the review period and change the composition of the basket of crudes to which pump prices are linked.