Markets

C$ creeps up ahead of Greek vote, Fed meeting

Published June 15, 2012 Updated June 15, 2012 08:50pm

Riskier assets started to rally on Thursday after G20 officials told Reuters that major central banks stood ready to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity if the election result causes any adverse fallout.

"It's definitely had an impact. ... I think it's put some jittery investors at ease," said Mark Frey, chief market strategist at Cambridge Mercantile Group in Victoria, British Columbia. "If we went back two or three weeks, there was this building sense that this could get really, really ugly."

On Friday, central banks from Tokyo to London checked their ammunition in preparation for any turmoil from Greece's election, with the European Central Bank hinting at an interest rate cut and Britain set to open its coffers.

"Everyone's bias heading into the Greek election this weekend, especially at the beginning of the week, was naturally that we would see some upward drift in dollar/Canada towards the close of the week, and that really hasn't materialized," Frey said.

In fact, currency speculators cut their bets in favor of the US dollar for the first time in six weeks in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.    

The Canadian dollar ended the North American session at C$1.0222 versus the US dollar, or 97.82 US cents, up from Thursday's North American session close at C$1.0238, or 97.68 US cents. The currency ended the week 0.3 percent stronger.   

Frey put near-term resistance for the Canadian dollar around C$1.0220-25 and support around C$1.0310-15.     

North American economic data on Friday did little to inspire a bigger display of confidence. A gauge of manufacturing in New York state fell sharply in June, though it still showed growth, while a read on US consumer sentiment was also below consensus forecasts.  

In Canada, figures showed that despite warnings from the central bank, Canadians are continuing to pile up debt at a record pace, while manufacturing data signaled softness in the economy.     

Following the Greek election, markets will be paying close attention to the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

"While all the hoopla is about Greece, I think the more important event is going to be next week's FOMC. People are gingerly adding risk  on the assumption the Fed will stimulate growth," said John Curran, senior vice president at Canadian Forex.

Canadian bond prices rallied across the curve, tracking US Treasuries higher as investors positioned ahead of the Greek vote.

Canada's two-year bond was up 16 Canadian cents to yield 0.970 percent, while the benchmark 10-year bond climbed 61 Canadian cents, yielding 1.732 percent.

Copyright Reuters, 2012