China's copper imports and aluminium consumption to drop again in 2020

• China's own refined copper output is still projected to grow by 3.8pc to 9.3 million tonnes this year and its exports by 10.8pc to 350,000 tonnes.
• Copper concentrate consumption, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 6.6pc on a copper-contained basis to 7.25 million tonnes.
• Copper consumption is expected to rise by 1.2pc to 11.4 million tonnes this year.

Refined copper imports are forecast at 3.1 million tonnes in 2020, He Xiaohui, a copper analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Antaike research arm said during a webinar.

That is down 12.7pc from an estimated 3.55 million tonnes in 2019, which would exceed Antaike's original projection of 3.2 million tonnes for 2019, around this time last year but is lower than the 3.75 million tonnes imported in 2018.

China, the world's biggest copper consumer, is purchasing more copper concentrate, or partially processed ore, and churning out more metal itself as its smelting capacity grows, reducing its reliance on imported metal.

Its refined copper consumption is expected to rise by 1.2pc to 11.4 million tonnes this year, Antaike says.

"In the short term we need to look at the novel coronavirus situation," Antaike's He said. "Although much of the consumption will only be postponed, it's hard to overlook the impact."

Chinese smelters, facing high inventories of sulphuric acid and logistical problems resulting from measures aimed at halting the spread of the virus, have been forced to cut production in recent weeks.

China's own refined copper output is still projected to grow by 3.8pc to 9.3 million tonnes this year and its exports by 10.8pc to 350,000 tonnes, according to data in He's presentation.

That leaves China's refined copper market in a surplus of 650,000 tonnes in 2020, narrowed from 936,000 tonnes last year.

Copper concentrate consumption, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 6.6pc on a copper-contained basis to 7.25 million tonnes, with domestic production holding steady at 1.56 million tonnes.

China's aluminium consumption fell for the first time in a decade in 2019, official data shows, though Antaike's records suggest that the 1pc drop was the first in 30 years.

Antaike, which previously forecast a rebound in 2020, now expects consumption to slip by 0.1pc to 36.6 million tonnes this year and production to rise by 4.1pc to 37.4 million tonnes, analyst Wang Hongfei said in a second webinar.

China is set to add 2.25 million tonnes of annual aluminium smelting capacity this year, with about three quarters - or 1.7 million tonnes - to come in the new hub of Yunnan in Southwest China, Wang added.