Strategie Grains raises 2019-20 EU soft wheat export forecast

Strong competitiveness of European wheat on world markets prompted consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday to lift its outlook for this season's EU soft wheat exports again. In a monthly report Strategie Grains forecast 2019/2020 exports outside the European Union at 28.8 million tonnes, up from 27.3 million seen last month and now nearly 7 million tonnes above its July estimate.

This season's exports are set to rise 40% from last year's but still fall short of the 2015/2016 record, it said. "Projected exports have increased again this month in response to the strong competitiveness of European wheat (with Baltic, German and Polish wheat selling well on the milling segment and French, Romanian and Bulgarian wheat scoring highly for the middle grade segment)," it said.

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports for a second month in a row, adding to expectations that France is benefiting from a big harvest and reduced Russian competition to gain market share overseas. As a result of its increased export outlook, Strategie Grains cut its forecast for EU carryout stocks to 11.9 million tonnes from 12.7 million tonnes seen in October.

For barley, Strategie Grains raised projected EU exports this month by 400,000 tonnes to almost 6.8 million tonnes, up almost 40% on 2018/19 but EU barley stocks were expected to balloon and it expected large surpluses in France, Britain, Germany and Scandinavia.