Rouble strengthens as oil prices jump, EM currencies regain ground

08 Aug, 2019

The rouble was 0.3pc stronger against the dollar at 65.14 by 0740 GMT, having touched its lowest since May 3 late on Wednesday.

The dollar edged lower across the board on Thursday as risk sentiment stabilised after resilient Chinese trade data and Beijing's efforts to slow a slide in the value of the renminbi encouraged investors to buy riskier currencies.

Versus the euro, the rouble gained 0.2pc to trade at 73.04 after falling to its lowest level since April 1 the previous day.

Oil futures recovered half of their near 5pc losses in the previous session, on expectations that lower prices may lead to production cuts.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 2pc at $57.43 a barrel.

In the short term, the perception of the entire emerging currencies market remains the key driver for the rouble, Mikhail Poddubsky, an analyst at Promsvyazbank, said.

In the near term, the rouble is likely to trade at around 65.0-65.5 against the dollar, Poddubsky said.

The rouble may also receive support from expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said sluggish inflation and concerns over the trade outlook could mean more interest rate cuts are needed.

VTB, Russia's second biggest bank, was trading 0.6pc down after posting a 31.6pc decline in second-quarter net profit, to 30.3 billion roubles, year-on-year.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 1.6pc to 1,306 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.0pc higher at 2,701 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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