MOSCOW: Russia ran a current account surplus in 2011 that approached levels not seen since before the 2008-2009 crisis as recovering oil prices lifted its income, but analysts say its commodity-focused economy is unlikely to repeat that performance this year.
Central bank data showed on Monday that the surplus in the current account - the broadest measure of the country's trade in goods and services - hit $98.8 billion last year, compared with $71.08 billion in 2010 and $48.6 billion in 2009.
"The numbers look pretty logical as the increase in the current account surplus is driven by a rise in exports," said Natalia Novikova, economist for Russia and the CIS at Citi in Moscow, adding that a 30 percent year-on-year rise in 2011 exports matches oil price growth.
Prices for Russia's Urals crude blend averaged $103.4 per barrel in 2011 compared to $81.7 a year before.
"This is positive, and this is one of the main reasons behind the rouble's strengthening," said Vladimir Osakovsky, chief economist at Banks of America Merill Lynch in Moscow.
The rouble firmed nearly 9 percent against the dollar in 2011 and added some 6 percent versus the euro.
The 2011 figure, however, fell behind the reading of 2008, when oil prices hit a record high of nearly $150 per barrel before the global market collapsed during the financial crisis.
Central bank data also showed that in the fourth quarter of 2011, Russia recorded a $28.3 billion current account surplus compared to a $17.84 billion surplus the previous quarter.
In 2012 Russia will again run a surplus but stronger domestic consumption and a forecast 3.7 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) will spur imports, trimming the surplus.
"Given the economic growth, the growth in imports, this year the surplus will come in around $85 billion," said Osakovsky.
Novikova forecast a surplus of around $80 billion for this year given an average oil price of $120 per barrel.
The latest Reuters poll of 15 analysts and economists showed that the surplus this year is expected to total $71.1 billion.