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The negative trend will be partly offset by higher output by the country's four car makers, it said.
The downside risks to the outlook lie in a possible no-deal Brexit, hard landing in the euro area and protectionism in world trade, the ministry said.
The ministry also cut its forecast for 2020, predicting a further deceleration to 3.4pc, from an earlier estimate of 3.7pc.
The following is a table of the ministry's updated outlook with previous forecasts from February 4 in brackets.