In its third forecast for the 2019/20 season, Green Pool also bumped up its projection for the global surplus in 2018/19 to 4.1 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 3.35 million.
There was a huge surplus of 19.43 million tonnes in 2017/18, it said.
Green Pool said the market is only slowly working its way through extremely large stocks, which it sees falling to 95.91 million tonnes in 2019/20 from 97.54 million in the previous season.
"A small-ish deficit - while a step in the right direction from a producers' perspective - probably needs to be larger to cause prices to move back to longer term average levels," the analyst house said in a report.
The expected shortfall in 2019/20 is mostly due to low prices weighing on production in some of the major export countries.