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What are the stakes in Algeria's presidential polls?

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The protesters fear the polls are a ploy by the ruling system to stay in power. So what are the stakes?

 

- Why are these elections contested? -

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The government hopes that holding elections within three months - as stipulated under the constitution - will ensure the continuity of the state institutions and the country's stability.

But protesters fear the quick turnaround will only help to keep Bouteflika's regime in place despite his ouster.

They say the country's electoral law and institutions do not guarantee a free election, arguing polls as they currently exist favour the powerful, well-established parties linked to the ruling regime.

The electoral lists set to feature in the polls were drawn up by regime institutions for elections originally due to be held on April 18, before Bouteflika stepped down.

Many voters did not register for those polls, believing Bouteflika's bid for a fifth term had swayed the outcome before voting even began.

The interior ministry, tasked with overseeing the election, has been fingered by protesters and the opposition for running of past polls which they claim were fraudulent.

Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui, who served as interior minister until Bouteflika appointed him premier on March 11, has promised an independent electoral commission.

But who would participate in it if protesters and the opposition continue to denounce the ballot?

"We do not know anything about this body: its members, its prerogatives, its degree of autonomy, its credibility," said Louisa Dris-Ait Hamadouche, professor of political science at the University of Algiers.

 

- Potential candidates? -

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The government will likely seek to back someone who embodies change -- at least symbolically -- while presenting guarantees on the regime's future and its key figures.

For now, candidates that could do so are not rushing to take part in a system rejected by the vast majority of Algerians.

The country's long-marginalised opposition parties do not appear to be gearing up for polls either, particularly if they cannot guarantee the election will be free and fair.

Some may even boycott the ballot altogether.

Historical splits within the opposition could push some parties to take part for fear of being isolated, but the chances of them agreeing on a single candidate are slim.

Boycotting the polls would exclude the opposition from a political match that has been reduced to a battle between protesters and the "system".

The protest movement itself remains unstructured and unrepresented, and it is unlikely that it will present a candidate for a ballot it flat-out rejects.

"The next challenge for this movement is its structure," said Hamadouche.

Rachid Grim, a political science teacher at the Higher Institute of Management and Planning, said giving form to the broad movement "won't happen in a day, and three months... it's short".

 

- What are the issues? -

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The regime will push to make the polls a source of legitimacy for the president-elect, but it will face two major obstacles.

In the event of a boycott by major opposition parities, the smaller groups that have proven useful in past elections by presenting candidates with little chances of winning won't be enough to lend credibility to the polls.

Voter turnout in Algeria is traditionally low. In the 2014 presidential polls only 50 percent of voters went to the ballot box -- a low figure some observers believe is inflated.

"It's safe to say that if the election is organised under these conditions, the abstention will be even stronger," said Hamadouche. That would deprive the future head of state of any real legitimacy.

According to Mahrez Bouich, a professor of political philosophy at the University of Bejaia, "the street will decide".

Copyright AFP (Agence France-Press), 2019