French wheat export forecast raised for third month in a row

PARIS: Farming agency FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season for the third month in a row, underlining a recent acceleration in shipments from the EU's biggest grain growing country.

In monthly supply and demand estimates published on Wednesday, FranceAgriMer predicted soft wheat exports outside the bloc of 9.7 million tonnes in 2018/19, up from the 9.5 million forecast last month and now 19.5 percent above last season's volume.

French wheat exports have been have been bolstered in recent weeks by declining competition from Black Sea origins and steady demand from importers in North and West Africa.

FranceAgriMer said last month there was scope for further upward revisions to its non-EU export outlook and some market participants had expected it would lift the forecast more sharply this month.

Others have cautioned that competition from origins like U.S. wheat and limited requirements for importers in the remaining weeks of the July-June season would cap French shipments.

FranceAgriMer left its estimate of soft wheat stocks for the end of the season unchanged at 2.4 million tonnes, which would be a five-year low.

The stable stocks forecast included reduced forecasts for animal feed demand and exports within the EU, offsetting the increased outlook for exports outside the bloc.

For maize, FranceAgriMer increased its estimate of 2018/19 ending stocks by 200,000 tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes, which would be a four-year high.

The higher maize stocks projection was mainly due to a reduced outlook for exports within the EU.

Expected barley ending stocks were trimmed to 1.7 million tonnes from 1.8 million, but would remain at a nine-year high.

The cut to the barley stocks forecast reflected slight increases to projected animal feed demand and intra-EU exports.