French wheat export forecast hiked, boosting hopes for late flurry

PARIS: Farming agency FranceAgriMer increased its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2018/19, lending weight to expectations that competitively priced French supplies are set for a late-season surge in demand.

French soft wheat shipments to non-EU countries are now expected to reach 9.5 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season to June 30, up 7 percent from 8.85 million projected last month, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal supply and demand outlook released on Wednesday.

Projected soft wheat shipments within the EU this season were left little changed at 7.5 million tonnes.

Traders have been anticipating that France, the EU's biggest grain producer, would see an upturn in wheat shipments as supplies run low in cheaper exporting countries such as Russia and Ukraine. French successes in recent tenders by top importer Egypt have bolstered sentiment.

Market participants are also watching to see if French wheat claims significant sales in tenders being held on Wednesday by Algeria and Tunisia, other major cereal importers, in the wake of a slide in international wheat prices.

FranceAgriMer's raised forecast for non-EU soft wheat exports was 17 percent above the 2017/18 level of 8.1 million.

The export upgrade led it to cut its estimate of 2018/19 soft wheat ending stocks to 2.4 million tonnes from 3.0 million, 18 percent below last season's level.

In contrast, the agency raised its outlook for maize (corn) and barley stockpiles as it reduced export expectations.

For maize, it lowered its estimate of 2018/19 exports within EU to 4.0 million tonnes from 4.2 million last month, and raised projected ending stocks to 2.4 million tonnes from 2.2 million.

For barley, it reduced its estimate of 2018/19 exports outside the EU to 2.6 million tonnes from 2.9 million, and increased its ending stocks forecast to 1.8 million tonnes from 1.5 million.