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Sri Lanka inflation eases despite price shocks, rupee dip

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Annual inflation eased to 2.7 percent this month from a year earlier, well below market expectations, and down from 3.8 percent in January on a new consumer price index.

"I can't even imagine how inflation could come down after the fuel price hike and its trickle-down effect," an economist said on condition of anonymity. "How can this happen when prices for widely used energy sources such as diesel and kerosene went up by over 40 percent on average?"

In February, the government raised fuel prices by between 9 percent and 50 percent, and electricity prices by as much 40 percent. Those price hikes, plus others in widely-consumed commodities, have spawned sporadic protests.

At the same time, the rupee currency has fallen 6.6 percent against the dollar since the central bank on Feb. 9 dropped a longstanding policy of intervening to maintain a specific price level.

The Census and Statistics Department attributed the decline to improved local food prices.

"This is mainly due to significant price declines in fish, vegetables, and rice," said D. C. A. Gunawardena, director of the department's price division. "But it will rise from next month as we have partially included electricity and transport prices this month."

Annual average inflation as measured on a 12-month moving average eased to a one-year low of 6.1 percent this month, from January's 6.5 percent.

The Department of Census and Statistics in June introduced a new index based on a 2006/2007 survey, replacing an earlier one that had 2002 as a base year. The new index reduced the weighting of food and energy, the most volatile components.

Copyright Reuters, 2012