Markets

US soy near 4-month high on Greek optimism

Published Updated

Wall Street traded modestly higher and the dollar fell as investors moved into riskier assets and away from the safe-haven currency, making US grain more attractive for overseas buyers.

Soybeans led the early gains at the Chicago Board of Trade, with the front contract rising to a near four-month high on concerns about hot and dry weather in southern Brazil, where the soy crop is still developing.

"Certainly the news out of Greece was positive, and the dryness out of Rio Grande do Sul -- I think we are trading the same bullish forecast we got for southern Brazil that we had on Friday," said Dan Cekander, analyst with Newedge USA.

"You're doing damage (to the soy crop) this week. It just solidifies ideas that USDA's recent estimate of 72 million tonnes is significantly overstating Brazil's soy production," he added.

Traders were digesting the US Department of Agriculture's annual baseline projections for US crops, which projected corn seedings for 2012 at 94 million acres (38 million hectares), the most since World War Two, and 2012 soybean plantings at 74.0 million acres.

USDA's corn figure came in close to a Reuters poll of 24 analysts last week that projected US 2012 corn plantings at 94.2 million acres. But the poll projected soybean plantings at 75.3 million acres, 1.3 million above USDA's baseline figure.

"The corn number is not too far off, but some people have questions about the soybean numbers (being) a little smaller," said Rich Nelson of Allendale Inc.

The baseline figures, based on data from November, will be updated with more current data on prices and economic conditions at USDA's annual Outlook conference on Feb. 23 and 24.

As of 11:45 a.m. CST (1745 GMT), CBOT March soybeans were up 11 cents at $12.40 per bushel, easing after reaching $12.49-3/4, the highest spot price on the continuous chart since Oct. 19, 2011.

March corn was up 6 cents at $6.37-3/4 per bushel and March wheat was up 5 cents at $6.35 a bushel.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.26 percent, making US dollar-priced commodities more attractive for overseas buyers.

CBOT wheat drew additional support from Egypt's first purchase of US wheat since June. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, on Saturday bought 55,000 tonnes of US soft red winter wheat for April 1-10 shipment.

"People are happy to see that we got a piece of the Egypt purchase," Nelson said.

Traders were monitoring winter wheat in Europe's Black Sea region, which continued to experience stressful cold temperatures, but a blanket of snow was protecting the crop in most areas. Crops in eastern Europe suffered from bad sowing conditions in the autumn.

"There is still limited snowcover in southern Ukraine but snow will be building there," Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather said Monday. Temperatures would remain cold this week but not the extreme cold of two weeks ago.

In the US Plains wheat belt, a cold snap is posing a threat of winterkill, but a protective snow cover is in place in what may prove to be the coldest areas.

"It will turn calm by Friday with warmer weather from then through the end of the month," Keeney said of the Plains.

Grain prices fell last week as the US Agriculture Department's monthly supply and demand report lacked any bullish surprises that would have driven the market higher after investors built a risk premium into grain and oilseed prices.

The US corn stockpile is projected by USDA to shrink this summer to the smallest in 16 years, down 5 percent from the previous forecast to 801 million bushels. That was still slightly larger than traders had anticipated.

Copyright Reuters, 2012