Prices tick higher as market awaits USDA verdict
PARIS/SYDNEY: Chicago corn, wheat and soybean futures turned slightly higher on Thursday as investors adjusted positions ahead of updated government forecasts of the US harvest and expected demand against a backdrop of trade tensions with China.
The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) November supply and demand report, due to be released at 1700 GMT, is expected to trim official estimates of US corn and soybean yields but raise the outlook for soybean stocks at the end of the 2018/19 marketing year.
A rain-disrupted US corn and soybean harvest has raised doubts about the size of what had been tipped to be massive yields, while a trade dispute between Washington and Beijing is curbing US soybean shipments.
"People are sitting on their hands ahead of the USDA estimates tonight, you don't want to get caught on the wrong side of the numbers that will move the market," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.
The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 0.3 percent at $8.82 a bushel by 1245 GMT, steadying after an earlier drop that had initially extended losses from the previous three sessions.
CBOT corn edge up 0.3 percent to $3.73.1/2 a bushel while wheat was up 0.3 percent at $5.12 a bushel.
China's soybean imports jumped by nearly a fifth in October from a year earlier, customs data showed on Thursday, with buyers stocking up on Brazilian beans amid worries over tight supply in the fourth quarter due to the Sino-US trade war.
Rapid planting of soybeans in Brazil, meanwhile, has raised expectations China may continue to shun US supplies if the trade battle with Washington drags on.
"China has already stocked up with enough soybeans from Brazil to cover the period until the next Brazilian crop," Commerzbank said in a note.
"US soybean exporters have their hopes pinned on the G20 summit at the end of this month," it said, referring to the meeting of major economies where US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are due to hold talks.
Grain markets were also assessing steep upward revisions to China's corn output estimates for the past 10 years including the current crop year, as shown in a report by an official think-tank.
Traders were still awaiting a clearer picture about the export availabilities in Russia, the world's top wheat supplier.