Top News

Food inflation one-year high in January: Mexico

Published Updated

Consumer prices rose 0.32 percent in the first half of the month, faster than the 0.26 percent expected by analysts in a Reuters poll, and pushing up annual inflation to 3.94 percent, it’s fastest since January 2011 and above the 3.82 percent seen in December.

Prices spiked for agricultural products and corn tortillas, Mexico's staple food. A severe drought is plaguing farmers in northern Mexico.

"This should reduce the probability of an interest rate cut in the coming months," Nomura analyst Benito Berber said. "But at the same time, it is not enough to put hikes on the table."

He noted that core merchandise costs, the most sensitive to currency fluctuations, did not show any sign of being contaminated by a slump last year in the country's peso currency. Annual non-food core merchandise inflation was running at only 2.66 percent, Berber said.

Core prices overall rose 0.20 percent in the first half of the month, slower than expected, contained by lower tourism costs and a cut in phone charges by the leading provider.

Mexico's central bank, which considers 4 percent the limit of acceptable inflation, dismissed the recent spike in inflation as a passing blip last Friday, when it held the country's benchmark rate steady at 4.50 percent.

Yields on interest rate swaps edged up after the data. Investors are betting the central bank will likely leave its benchmark rate steady over the coming two years, with a slight chance of a hike.

Mexico's peso sank to a 2-1/2 year low late last year but the currency has gained more than 8 percent since November and further gains would curb the risk that higher import prices could feed into inflation.

Policymakers noted on Friday that the domestic economy was losing steam under the weight of a global slowdown.

Mexico's economy grew 0.17 percent in November from the previous month, a separate report showed, and missing analyst estimates of a 0.46 percent expansion. The economy grew 3.75 percent compared to November 2010, faster than expected.

Copyright Reuters, 2012