Bollard's speech to a local business group in the South Island city of Christchurch will be on the record, the central bank said, and is titled "A tale of two crises." The RBNZ will review its official cash rate on Thursday. A Reuters poll of 18 economists showed four economists expect a rate increase in the first-half of this year, while the remaining expect it in the second half or later. Financial markets pricing implies a 6 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday and a flat outlook over the next 12 months. The domestic economy is struggling to pick up pace, with domestic demand growing only modestly because of high household debt and unemployment. The consumer price index unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent in the December quarter, the first drop in two years, pulling annual inflation down to 1.8 percent, giving the central bank room to keep rates on hold.