Markets

Won, ringgit breaches resistance; Asia FX up

Published January 18, 2012 Updated January 18, 2012 08:02am

Contined inflows to assets in some Asian countries, such as India and the South Korea, lifted their currencies with the Indian rupee hitting a two-month high.

Some dealers and analysts expected more funds to flow in as risk appetite improves, though investors remained cautious as they awaited the outcome of a Portuguese debt sale and eyed fractious talks over restructuring Greece's debt.

"There is some implicit presure in the short term to push higher on the back of capital inflows, falling vols and a general improvement in global risk appetite levels," said Emmanuel Ng, FX strategist at OCBC in Singapore, adding emerging Asian currencies are likely rise further.

"Excessive cash in the world since last June when every fund exited has nowhere to go now. Even a small portion of the cash is enough to push up the KOSPI and others by 5-10 percent," said a senior dealer at a Malaysian bank in Kuala Lumpur, referring to the South Korea's main stock index.

Amid the caution, Asian importers bought dollars for settlements, limiting gains in their currencies.

Some dealers said investors may have to quickly reduce long positions in emerging Asian units if sentiment on risky assets turn sour again.

The euro gave up some of its earlier gains as it faced resistance.

"If we keep shorting dollar/Asia on the current risk-on sentiment, anybody could be a fool as the mood can change anytime," said a European bank dealer.

Portugal aims to sell up to 2.5 billion euros of treasury bills later on Wednesday in its biggest debt auction since last year's bailout.

Greece's debt swap talks with international creditors are also set to resume on Wednesday after breaking down last week. Greece needs to reach a deal in order to secure a new bailout from the EU and IMF and avoid a default when its big bond redemption comes due in late March.

WON

Dollar/won breached support at its 55-day moving average at 1,144.6 as foreign investors continued to buy South Korean stocks.

The pair earlier found some relief from importers' demand for settlements, but offshore funds and stop-loss sales pushed down it to as low as 1,140.2, the weakest since Dec 12, dealers said.

Some local dumped long positions, which they had built up along with importers' bids, on heavy selling from offshore funds, they added.

Dollar/won is seen having room to fall more, probably to a 100-day moving average of 1,138.7.

Foreign investors reported their longest buying spree in the Seoul stock market since July with a seventh consecutive session of net purchases.

They bought a net 481.0 billion won ($419.89 million) after scooping up a combined 1.35 trillion won during the previous six sessions.

RINGGIT

Dollar/ringgit fell below a Fibonacci retracement support as some speculators looked to sell the pair on rallies on improved risk appetite. Leveraged names also sold it.

"USD/Asia will slowly slide along with the better risk sentiment," said senior dealer at a Malaysian bank in Kuala Lumpur, adding that he would not join any bids on dips.

Dollar/ringgit may head to 3.10, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of its October-Deceber rise, if it ends the day lower than the 50 percent level around 3.12.

PHILIPPINE PESO

Investors added short Dollar/Philippine peso positions, while the central bank's agent players have been spotted buying around 43.50, , dealers said.

Some dealers sought to buy the pair on dips, seeing the market as short, and before the central bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

Earlier, the central bank governor said the Philippines needs to adjust its monetary policy to attract more investment and fuel growth, with inflation seen as manageable despite pressure from volatile world oil prices.

The bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday to boost growth, a Reuters poll showed.

"After the 43.75 level was broken, everybody is now looking to sell the rallies. But I doubt if USD/PHP is going lower with a rate decision tomorrow," said a European bank dealer in Manila, adding he would buy the pair around 43.40-43.45.

Copyright Reuters, 2012