KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to experience a warmer-than-normal winter, with temperatures expected to remain above average across most parts of the country until January 2027. Rainfall, meanwhile, is likely to be normal or above normal in most areas, with northern regions expected to receive more rain, according to the Met Office.
In its seasonal outlook for November, December and January, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said the biggest rise in temperatures was expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, followed by adjoining areas of Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Climate models show a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures in these regions.
The warmer conditions may bring some benefits but could also increase the risk of smog, fog, dengue and avalanches in different parts of the country. Reviewing weather conditions during August–October, the Met Office said rainfall remained mostly below normal nationwide.
Gilgit-Baltistan and Punjab received slightly less rain than usual, while Sindh and Balochistan faced significant rainfall shortages.
Several monsoon spells affected northern and central parts of the country in August and September. In October, a westerly weather system brought rain, thunderstorms and isolated hailstorms to upper parts of the country. Temperatures remained above normal in all regions during the three-month period. Balochistan recorded the largest increase above its average, followed by Azad Kashmir.
For the coming winter, most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The increase is expected to be more pronounced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, adjoining northern Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. The chances of above-normal rainfall are highest in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These chances gradually decrease towards northern Punjab and western Balochistan.
Near-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Balochistan, central and southern Punjab and Sindh, particularly central and southern Sindh. However, normal winter rainfall in the southeastern parts of the country, including Sindh and adjoining areas of Punjab and Balochistan, is already very low. The Met Office said above-normal rainfall in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Punjab and Azad Kashmir would support the timely sowing and early growth of rain-fed Rabi crops.
In southeastern parts of the country, near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall may increase the need for irrigation during early sowing and crop growth.
Farmers have been advised to plan canal water supplies accordingly. Warmer temperatures in the plains may speed up early crop growth. The risk of frost is expected to remain below normal, although cold spells in January could still damage vegetables and other crops sensitive to low temperatures.
Near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall in central and southern Pakistan, combined with calm and stable weather, may increase the risk of smog and fog, particularly in central Punjab during December and January. These conditions could worsen air quality, reduce visibility, affect respiratory health and disrupt road and air traffic. Warmer weather may also allow dengue transmission to continue in humid urban areas of Punjab and Sindh during November, although cases are expected to decline towards December.
The Met Office stressed the need to strengthen mosquito control measures and remove stagnant water. Fog, smog and cold nights may also increase respiratory illnesses, particularly among children and elderly people. In mountainous regions, above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir may delay snow accumulation at lower elevations.
However, higher areas are expected to gradually receive their seasonal snow cover.
The Met Office warned that winter rainfall and temperature changes at high altitudes could make the snowpack unstable and increase the risk of avalanches in some areas. The department said the outlook provides general trends based on probabilities rather than exact weather predictions.
The outlook is based on the combined results of 10 global climate models with relatively high forecasting skills, using the Multi-Model Ensemble technique. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a positive phase but is expected to turn neutral at the beginning of the winter season. Strong El Niño conditions are also expected to continue throughout the season.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026