KARACHI: The Met Office has warned that above-normal temperatures may prolong the dengue season across the country, while fog could reduce visibility and disrupt highway travel and flight operations, particularly during early mornings in November.
The Met Office, in its November outlook, said that slight rainfall shortages in Sindh, southern Punjab and southern Balochistan may also affect water availability for irrigation and the sowing of Rabi crops. However, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of the country during November 2026, with the highest rainfall levels above normal likely in northern areas, particularly most parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab and parts of Kashmir.
Rainfall is likely to remain close to normal in central districts of Punjab and Balochistan, while southern Balochistan, Sindh and some districts of southern Punjab are expected to receive slightly below-normal rainfall. Overall, the forecast shows a clear north-south contrast, with above-normal rainfall mainly confined to the northern half of the country. The monthly outlook is based on the average projections of 10 selected global seasonal prediction models, which serve as the primary guidance for operational rainfall and temperature forecasts.
The models indicate that positive El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will persist through November 2026, while the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to turn neutral by the end of the month. The probability-based rainfall forecast also shows a higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall in the northern and western parts of the country. The chances are highest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and northwestern Punjab. In contrast, near-normal rainfall is more likely in Sindh and adjoining southeastern parts of Balochistan.
The expected above-normal rainfall is likely to support rain-fed sowing and germination of Rabi crops in northern Punjab, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and AJK. However, rainfall shortages in Sindh, southern Punjab and southern Balochistan may reduce water availability in rain-fed agricultural areas and affect crop sowing. Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the country during November, with the highest departures likely in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The probability-based temperature forecast also indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures in most parts of the country. The highest probabilities are concentrated in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, with other high-probability areas in northwestern Balochistan and the southeastern coastal belt of Sindh. A weaker tendency towards above-normal temperatures is expected in central and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of southwestern Balochistan. The warmer conditions may prolong the dengue season, particularly in areas where mosquito breeding is more common, including southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
The Met Office has advised health authorities to remain vigilant and continue mosquito-control measures. Meanwhile, dry and cool nights are expected to favour fog formation, particularly in southern Punjab, Sindh and adjoining areas of Balochistan. Reduced visibility could disrupt highway travel and cause delays on major roads and at airports, especially during early morning hours. The outlook also warns of deteriorating air quality and possible smog in the plains of the country. This could pose health risks, particularly to children and the elderly, and worsen respiratory illnesses among people suffering from asthma and other chronic lung conditions.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026