EDITORIAL: Pakistan’s cotton crop is facing another projected decline, with potentially serious consequences for an economy whose principal merchandise export industry remains heavily dependent on the fibre.
The World Bank expects domestic cotton production to fall by 6 percent in 2026-27, against a 3 percent decline in global output. India and Brazil, meanwhile, are projected to increase production by about 1 percent each. These figures should prompt an urgent examination of the government’s agricultural priorities, particularly given the mounting international pressures on commodity markets. The warning signs have been visible for some time, yet there is little evidence of a sufficiently coordinated effort to protect domestic production from the risks now materialising.
The international environment offers no comfort. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supplies, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues to constrain shipments through the Black Sea. A potentially severe El Niño adds another threat to agricultural output. The World Bank projects a 23 percent increase in global commodity prices in 2026, led by a 32 percent rise in energy prices, with food commodities expected to become 10 percent more expensive. Even its forecast decline in overall commodity prices next year comes with a further projected 7 percent increase in food prices. These developments have direct implications for fertiliser, fuel, transport, and other agricultural inputs. A government aware of these risks should have been preparing farmers and the wider cotton value chain well before the latest production forecast arrived.
Cotton occupies a particularly important position in Pakistan’s economic structure. It supplies the raw material for the textile and apparel industry, the country’s largest merchandise export sector, supporting millions of livelihoods across farming, ginning, spinning, weaving, and manufacturing. The decline in domestic output has already increased the industry’s dependence on imported cotton, adding pressure to foreign exchange requirements and exposing manufacturers to international price and supply disruptions. Pakistan once had a substantial natural advantage as a cotton producer. Allowing that advantage to deteriorate while importing an increasing share of the fibre required by its own industry represents a serious failure of economic planning.
The comparison with India is especially instructive. Its projected 1 percent increase may appear modest, but the direction of travel matters. India has a considerably more diversified export base, including a large information technology and services industry, alongside manufacturing and agriculture. Pakistan remains far more dependent on textiles for merchandise export earnings. Any loss of competitiveness in this sector therefore carries consequences extending well beyond cotton growers and textile mills. If competitors maintain or expand production while Pakistan struggles to secure its raw material, the country risks surrendering market share at precisely the time it needs to broaden its export base.
The government’s response must extend beyond announcing production targets or distributing inputs shortly before the sowing season. Cotton requires a coherent, multi-year strategy addressing seed quality, agricultural research, pest management, water availability, extension services and the economics of cultivation. Farmers need predictable support arrangements and timely payments, while distortions that make competing crops more attractive must be examined. Climate-resilient varieties, better irrigation practices and reliable crop monitoring should become central to agricultural policy. The textile industry also needs a predictable framework that supports domestic cotton production without making imported raw material artificially more attractive.
There is little value in repeatedly celebrating export ambitions while neglecting the agricultural foundations on which a major part of those exports rests. The government must bring provincial administrations, research institutions, growers and textile manufacturers into a coordinated programme, with clear production objectives and publicly monitored progress. It should also identify the reasons behind successive shortfalls and assign responsibility for correcting them.
Pakistan cannot control international wars, shipping disruptions or the weather. It can, however, prepare its agricultural economy to withstand their consequences. Losing domestic cotton production while competitors strengthen their position would be an entirely avoidable setback. The country has spent years discussing export-led growth. It should begin by ensuring that its flagship export industry has the raw material to grow.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026