Indian rupee ends a tad higher as dollar slips after US midterms

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended modestly higher on Wednesday, aided by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices as investors assessed the impact of US midterm election results, while a Reuters poll showed expectations for depreciation of South Asian unit remained intact.

The Indian rupee closed at 94.64 per dollar, up slightly from its close at 94.74 in the previous session.

Democrats captured majorities in both the Senate and House on Wednesday, scoring sweeping victories that reached deep into Republican strongholds as tens of millions of voters delivered a scathing rebuke to President Donald Trump.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, was down 0.4% at 101.3 with currencies like the euro, sterling and Swiss franc leading gains.

The rupee also touched a two-week high in early trading before trimming gains as importer and interbank dollar bids gathered steam around the 94.50 mark.

“It seems like selling USD/INR is bit of a risky endeavour at the moment since dips have very limited staying power at these levels,” a trader at a state-run lender said.

A majority of analysts polled by Reuters expect the rupee give up its recent gains and slip again over the next few months as a volatile external environment continues to pressure the currency.

While a series of policy measures rolled out by the Reserve Bank of India since the Iran war began has supported the currency, elevated oil prices and weak portfolio flows remain key risks.

“The RBI has done what a central bank can do. It has intervened heavily, restricted currency markets, raised around $143 billion through a deposit and borrowing scheme and raised interest rates. These measures have avoided a disorderly collapse and bought time,” Natixis said in a note.

“None of them addresses the causes of the weakness. A central bank cannot create export capacity, manufacturing investment or energy independence. Only structural reform can,” the note added.