Indian rupee to benefit from oil plunge while facing technical resistance, dollar strength
- The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 94.75-94.78 range, per traders, having settled at 94.90 to the dollar on Monday
The Indian rupee is set to open stronger due to falling crude oil prices, but dollar strength and technical resistance may limit its gains, with global factors influencing its trajectory.
- Impact of falling crude oil prices on India's macroeconomic outlook.
- The Reserve Bank of India's strategies to manage rupee pressure.
- Technical resistance levels and broader Asian currency market trends.
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to open on firmer footing on Tuesday following a slide in crude oil prices, though dollar strength and technical barriers are expected to contain the magnitude of the currency’s advance.
The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 94.75-94.78 range, per traders, having settled at 94.90 to the dollar on Monday.
Brent crude plummeted 11% on Monday, after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of a resolution to the US-Israeli war with Iran and a stabilisation of crude supplies from the Middle East. The drop held in Asia trading with Brent at $104.70.
High oil prices have been a persistent source of pressure on the rupee, with the impact extending well beyond a higher import bill.
With India importing about 90% of its requirement, higher prices worsen the country’s macroeconomic outlook, raise corporate currency hedging demand and weigh on foreign portfolio flows.
The Reserve Bank of India has remained a constant presence in the foreign-exchange market to manage the pressure, selling dollars along with deploying other measures to rein to support the rupee.
“The biggest thing that can change the rupee’s fortunes and provide relief is oil,” a currency trader at a private sector bank said, referring to the potential for sustained lower oil prices if a lasting truce is found in the Middle East.
While the rupee is likely to perform well at the open, the 94.50-94.70 range presents a significant zone for technical resistance, the trader added.
Weakness across Asian currencies is another factor that could limit the rupee’s advance beyond the initial lift.
Oil-sensitive regional peers, including the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso, remained under pressure, suggesting investors were reluctant to buy Asian currencies amid AI-related risk aversion.
US equities dropped on Monday and futures were largely flat in Asia with investors weighing possible outcomes from crucial midterm elections in the world’s largest economy.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.8%.