Pakistan inflation clocks in at 9.6% in October 2026

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 9.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in October 2026, down from 10.3% recorded in September, as shown by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.2% in October 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.1% in October 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.3% in the previous month and an increase of 1.7% in October 2025.

CPI inflation urban increased by 9.5% on a year-on-year basis in October 2026 as compared to an increase of 10.1% in the previous month and an increase of 6.0% in October 2025.

On a month-on- month basis, it increased by 0.8% in October 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.3% in the previous month and an increase of 1.4% in October 2025.

CPI inflation in rural areas increased by 9.8% on a year-on-year basis in October 2026 as compared to an increase of 10.5% in the previous month and an increase of 6.6% observed in October 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.5% in October 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.2% in the previous month and an increase of 2.1% in October 2025.

During the first four months of FY27, CPI inflation stood at 10.05% as compared to 4.79% in the same period last year.

Government expectations

Days ago, Pakistan’s finance ministry projected inflation in the range of 9.5% to 10.5% for October 2026 amid elevated energy and food prices in the country in line with global trends, while the domestic economic outlook to remain promising for the ongoing fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27).

“Headline inflation (the benchmark CPI/Consumer Price Index) is projected in the range of 9.5 to 10.5% for October 2026, with the subsequent path sensitive to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects.

“The recovery in the ongoing FY27 is expected to draw support from improving crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, domestic construction activity and expanding external earnings,” said the ministry in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook October 2026.

Experts expectations

Earlier, a number of brokerage houses expected Pakistan’s consumer price inflation to ease to around 9-9.5% in October, but rising fuel and electricity costs are expected to keep price pressures elevated and complicate the central bank’s policy outlook.

“Pakistan’s CPI for October 2026 is expected to clock in at 9.0-9.50% YoY, compared to 10.26% in September 2026 and 6.25% in October 2025,” according to estimates from Topline Securities.

“We expect average inflation to exceed 9% in FY27 if oil prices remain at current levels of $100-110/barrel, compared to our earlier forecast of 8.5-9%,” it added.

Similarly, Insight Securities expected inflation to clock in at 9.3% for October 2026, compared to 6.2% in the same period last year and 10.3% in September 2026.