KARACHI: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to meet today (Monday) to review the key policy rate.
Governor SBP Jameel Ahmed will chair the meeting and later announce the decision in a press conference at the SBP head office. In its last meeting on Sept 14, 2026, the Committee maintained the policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent; however, the market now expects the MPC to further tighten the monetary policy to control inflation.
Analysts expect the SBP to increase the policy rate by 50 bps to mitigate any prolonged inflationary and external shock as the uncertainty still prevails.
READ ALSO: Monetary Policy: back to irrational optimism?
In a poll conducted by Topline Securities of market participants, 61 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to rise at the today’s MPC meeting. Of which 54 percent believe a 50 bps rise, whereas 7 percent believe a 100bps increase will occur. Meanwhile, 39 percent expect the policy rate to remain unchanged.
According to Topline, at the current level of oil prices (USD100 brent), Topline expects headline inflation for FY27 to average 9-9.5 percent, leaving a real rate of 200-250bps at the current policy rate of 11.5 percent. During the next 12 months, inflation is likely to average above 8.5 percent, which is higher than the SBP’s medium-term target of 5-7 percent.
Since the last monetary policy meeting, secondary market yields have also incorporated the 50bps hike, as the 6M Tbill is trading at 12.24 percent vs. policy rate of 11.50 percent. The, 6M KIBOR is priced at 12.43 percent.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026