ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could see around 1.48 million people exposed to annual coastal flooding by 2100, as rising sea levels, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion threaten communities, infrastructure and livelihoods, according to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2026.
The report identifies Pakistan among the countries facing growing coastal risks and warns that development in flood-prone areas, combined with intensifying climate hazards, could significantly increase future economic and social costs.
Karachi is among the coastal cities highlighted in the assessment of urban exposure, with approximately 566,000 people projected to be affected annually by coastal flooding by 2100 under the report’s high-emissions scenario.
The report’s projections underline the need for Pakistan to incorporate coastal resilience into urban development, infrastructure investment and long-term climate planning rather than relying primarily on emergency responses after disasters.
The ADB assessment, which examines coastal risks across 30 developing member countries, estimates that about 33 million people across the region could be affected by annual coastal flooding by 2050, rising to more than 100 million by the end of the century under a high-emissions pathway.
Pakistan’s coastal vulnerability extends beyond flooding. Rising seas can accelerate shoreline erosion, push saltwater into freshwater systems and agricultural land, and damage infrastructure, placing additional pressure on communities dependent on coastal resources.
These threats also carry economic implications. Coastal infrastructure and transport networks are critical to trade and economic activity, while disruption to ports can transmit losses through supply chains far beyond affected areas. Damage to fisheries and coastal ecosystems can further undermine livelihoods and food security.
The report warns that development patterns are compounding climate risks across Asia and the Pacific. Between 1985 and 2015, the region’s coastal settlement area expanded by 66.8 percent, while settlement in flood-exposed coastal areas grew by 92.3 percent, indicating that development has been expanding disproportionately in hazard-prone locations.
Such patterns can lock governments and communities into decades of rising exposure, as buildings, roads and other infrastructure remain in place long after the initial investment.
The ADB has called for a shift towards adaptive coastal planning, with governments integrating climate-risk information into land-use decisions, public investment management and development strategies. It recommends steering new development away from areas facing unmanageable risks and keeping future adaptation options open.
Measures include strengthening coastal protection, improving drainage and early-warning systems, restoring natural barriers such as mangroves, and adapting infrastructure to withstand flooding. Where risks become unmanageable, planned relocation may also be necessary, provided communities are involved and their livelihoods are protected.
Financing remains a major challenge. The report estimates that annual investments of USD 9 billion to USD 19 billion in coastal flood protection across ADB’s developing member countries could help keep flood damages near current levels, potentially avoiding USD 178 billion to USD 360 billion in annual damages.
The bank stresses that public finance must remain central to resilience investment, supplemented by concessional climate finance, development-partner support and private investment where commercially viable.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026