Yuan gains as markets weigh China inflation, await US CPI
- The spot yuan opened at 6.6935 per dollar and was last trading at 6.6919
China's yuan firmed against the dollar, nearing 2023 highs, as investors weighed mixed domestic inflation data and awaited crucial US CPI figures impacting Federal Reserve policy.
- China's mixed inflation readings and their impact.
- Upcoming US consumer price data and Fed policy.
- Analysts' forecasts for yuan appreciation through 2026.
SHANGHAI: China’s yuan firmed slightly against the dollar on Wednesday as investors parsed a mixed set of domestic inflation readings and braced for US consumer price data due later in the day that could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
Chinese producer prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years in September, while consumer inflation came in below expectations.
Pricier oil and commodities lifted factory-gate costs even as weak domestic demand kept broader price pressures contained.
The spot yuan opened at 6.6935 per dollar and was last trading at 6.6919 as of 0304 GMT, 9 pips firmer than the previous late session close.
The greenback edged lower on Wednesday, down from an 18-month high touched earlier this week, as oil prices eased and investors reassessed the AI-fuelled rally that has supported demand for US assets.
Beyond the US CPI print, markets are also awaiting speeches from Fed policymakers for further clues on the path of interest rates.
Prior to the market opening, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.7249 per dollar, its strongest since February 2, 2023 and 327 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate.
The spot yuan is allowed to trade 2% either side of the fixed midpoint each day.
Looking ahead, China Securities analysts expect the yuan to extend its moderate appreciation throughout the rest of 2026, forecasting a year-end level of 6.6 to 6.7 per dollar. The yuan is up 0.2% against the dollar this month, and 4.5% firmer this year.
“The US dollar cycle and cross-border capital flows will continue to drive short-term yuan moves,” the analysts said, “but supported by the trade surplus and careful policy pacing, the yuan should maintain a path of gradual appreciation.”
However, OCBC analysts warned that the yuan could be prone to technical consolidation in the near term, particularly if the strength in the daily fixing were to stall.
The offshore yuan traded at 6.6923 yuan per dollar, up about 0.02% in Asian trade.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was 0.08% lower at 102.10.