KARACHI: Pakistan is set for a mixed weather pattern in October, with rain likely in the north and mostly dry conditions expected in the south, while the Met Office has warned of increased dengue risk, deteriorating air quality and possible disruptions to farming activities.
In its October 2026 outlook, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecast near-normal to above-normal rainfall in northern parts of the country, particularly northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and northern Punjab.
Near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall is expected in central and southern areas, with the strongest negative rainfall anomalies likely over southern Sindh. Overall, the forecast shows a clear north-south rainfall gradient, with isolated rain events mainly expected in the northern half.
The PMD said there was a pronounced likelihood of above-normal rainfall over KP, GB, AJK, northwestern Punjab and northern Balochistan. Normal rainfall is likely over parts of southern Pakistan, particularly Sindh, southern Balochistan and southern Punjab, while southeastern Sindh may receive below-normal rainfall.
The wetter conditions in the north could occasionally bring showers, hailstorms and strong winds, potentially disrupting Kharif post-harvesting and early Rabi sowing. By contrast, dry weather in the south is expected to favour post-harvest activities for Kharif crops, particularly rice, cotton, maize and groundnut.
The PMD, however, warned that a strong temperature gradient could trigger strong winds, dust storms, thunderstorms and hailstorms, posing risks to seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards. Farmers have been advised to take precautionary measures to protect standing crops and check PMD advisories before irrigation or sowing.
Meanwhile, mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the country, with the largest departures likely in GB and western Balochistan. The highest probability of above-normal temperatures is forecast for northern areas, particularly GB, adjoining northern KP and Kashmir, as well as parts of southern Punjab and northern Sindh.
The warm and humid conditions are also expected to increase the risk of dengue breeding in central KP and northwestern Punjab. The PMD warned that stagnant water in inundated areas could lead to dengue outbreaks. Dry weather combined with above-normal temperatures may also worsen air quality and promote smog over the central and southern plains and major urban centres. The conditions could pose health risks, particularly to children, the elderly and other sensitive groups.
The PMD further noted that above-normal temperatures in the upper glaciated regions could contribute to higher-than-normal flows at vulnerable locations, although the overall probability remains low. Travellers and tourists have also been advised to exercise caution during rainfall events.
According to current model projections, positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to persist through October 2026, along with continued positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. The two climate patterns may, however, partly offset each other’s influence on rainfall over Pakistan.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026