Raw sugar tears through 20 cents/lb level, hits 19-month high

LONDON: Raw sugar futures on ICE tore through the 20 cents/lb level to hit a fresh 19-month peak on Monday amid worries over further El Nino-linked excess rains in top grower Brazil.

SUGAR

Raw sugar rose 3.4 to 20.60 cents per lb at 1231 GMT, after scaling a 19-month high of 20.65 cents. The contract gained 7.7 percent last week.

“Given record September rainfall (in Brazil) and an outlook for more right through October, it seems the market is convinced sugar (output) will fall well short of estimates,” said analysts at Green Pool. Brazilian production dropped 41.6 percent in the first half of September as rains continued to disrupt fieldwork as well as port operations.

El Nino is expected to adversely affect crops in all three top sugar growers — Brazil, India and Thailand. The coming EU crop is also likely to take a sharp hit from this summer’s drought.

White sugar gained 2.8 percent to USD546.40 a metric ton, having hit its highest since late August at USD547.80.

COFFEE

Arabica coffee rose 2.6 percent to USD2.96 per lb, having gained 3.6 percent last week. Arabica has been boosted near term by quality concerns owing to excess El Nino-linked rains in top grower Brazil, and worries the weather pattern might cause dryness ahead. Sucafina’s David Behrends said while a large Brazil crop is still expected in 2026/27, some players remain bullish near term due to tight stocks and elevated physical prices in Colombia and Central America. Robusta coffee rose 2.3 to USD3,526 a ton. Top robusta grower Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

COCOA

London cocoa rose 0.4 percent to £4,256 per ton. Dealers said cocoa remains range-bound overall, stuck between surplus supplies at present and a worsening outlook for 2026/27 linked to the El Nino weather pattern.

Ivory Coast’s main crop is seen falling around 17 percent this season due to an El Nino-linked drought and reduced fertiliser and pesticide use, according to a Reuters survey. Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast stood at 18,000 metric tons in the week to October 4, bringing the total since the 2025/26 season start to 54,500 tons. New York cocoa rose 0.4 percent to USD5,690 a ton.