Indian rupee faces more pressure with likely Fed rate hike compounding oil pain
- The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally weaker and is at risk of slipping past the 96 mark, traders said, after settling at 95.9550 to the dollar on Tuesday
The Indian rupee faces continued pressure, likely weakening past 96 against the dollar, driven by an anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike and persistently high global oil prices.
- The rupee's recent depreciation and central bank intervention.
- The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate hike.
- Market focus on future Fed policy and inflation outlook.
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to remain under pressure on Wednesday, with a Federal Reserve rate hike later in the day adding to the strain from high oil prices.
The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally weaker and is at risk of slipping past the 96 mark, traders said, after settling at 95.9550 to the dollar on Tuesday.
The local currency has fallen for seven straight sessions, shedding about 1.5% despite the central bank’s near-daily intervention to support it.
The slide has been largely one-way, with the rupee weakening to just shy of the 96-a-dollar mark from around 94.30 about two weeks ago.
The Indian rupee on Tuesday broke below 95.80, a level traders had seen as a key RBI-supported floor, opening the door to further losses.
A sustained break of 96 could accelerate the move lower, a currency trader at a bank said.
FED hike looms
Interest rate futures are now pricing in more than a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike later on Wednesday, up from about 60% a week back, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
The repricing has come in the wake of Brent crude climbing towards $110 a barrel, heightening concerns over inflation and pushing US yields to multi-year highs.
With the hike now largely priced in, investors are likely to focus on what the Fed says about the path ahead.
Markets will be watching the Fed’s updated dot plot and economic projections for clues on whether policymakers see scope for another hike later this year. Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on oil and inflation will be scrutinised.
“We suspect that the Fed will want to nudge the market away from pricing an October hike too confidently,” however, it will not do it in the statement, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Instead, Warsh could say in his press conference that before deciding on further steps, the Fed will “carefully assess” incoming data or will want to see upcoming inflation reports, the bank said.