Russian wheat export prices fall, September shipments set to decline

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices fell last week, following global trends, and analysts expect September shipments to be lower than in August.

A tender for the purchase of 535,000 metric tons of wheat, which was cancelled last week by Saudi Arabia due to high bid prices, demonstrated sentiment among importers, which has cooled the markets somewhat, analysts said.

According to IKAR, export prices for wheat with a 12.5percent protein content shipped from the Russian ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga – where the bulk of shipments are now being redirected as southern Russian ports remain virtually closed – were at USD274 per metric ton for delivery in late October–early November FOB by the end of last week. That was down USD5 from the previous week.

Shipments via ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin virtually came to a standstill from mid-August due to attacks on vessels and damage to terminals.

On Wednesday, the Sovecon consultancy lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season by 3.2 million tons to 41.4 million tons, citing worsening disruptions to the export corridor through the Azov and Black Seas.

Oksana Lut, Russia’s minister of agriculture, has stated that Russia is not experiencing any problems with grain exports and has many export options.

Analysts expect wheat exports in September to be lower than in August.

IKAR estimated that Russia had been able to export up to 2.0 million tons of wheat in September, while Sovecon’s estimate was 1.8 million tons and Rusagrotrans estimated over 1.7 million tons.