GEDAREF, (Sudan): Along the bone-dry riverbanks of the Nile in Sudan, farmers struggle to pull water to their crops. Others gather to pray for rainfall over cracked earth.
Across the country, farmland that could feed the world’s largest hunger crisis many times over lies fallow, as weary farmers once again find themselves in the crosshairs of faraway destruction.
First came war between the country’s army and rival paramilitaries, which since April 2023 has killed more than 200,000 people and pushed nearly 20 million into crisis levels of hunger.
Then a more distant conflict, between Iran and the United States, crippled fuel and fertiliser supply through the Strait of Hormuz, causing costs to soar.
And now the powerful El Nino climate pattern strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, which impacts winds and rains across the world, has delayed crucial rains and led water levels in the life-giving Nile to drop precipitously.
Just south of the capital Khartoum, farmer Al-Tigani Fadlallah points to an island that shouldn’t be there.
“The water usually covers it by July, but you can see it even now,” he told AFP this month, seeing in the sunbaked sandbank a bad omen for his parched crops.
Through the length of Sudan, from the northern fields near Egypt, along the Nile river to the Ethiopian border, farmers told AFP reporters the water they need is not rising from the riverbanks nor falling from the sky.
The UN’s food and agriculture organisation says the season “is unfolding under heightened climate risk, driven by El Nino conditions” including delayed and below average rains, and long and frequent dry spells. Farmers say it is one of the hardest seasons in recent memory, but climate research shows it will not be the last.
Climate and hydrology scientist Elfatih Eltahir, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has studied the link between El Nino and the Nile for thirty years.
His research has shown El Nino is closely associated with low Nile flow and, when it begins in late spring, as it did this year, brings a high probability of drought in southeastern Sudan and northwestern Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates.
Water levels at the reservoir behind Ethiopia’s massive Grand Renaissance dam on the Blue Nile, which contributes the majority of water feeding the Nile river, was six metres lower this July compared to the same month last year, according to data from Germany’s University of Tubingen.