Indian rupee may slip on oil, risk-off mood; RBI once again expected to ride to rescue
- The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 95.75 to 95.80 range, traders said, compared with 95.68 on Tuesday
The Indian rupee is poised to open weaker amid a deteriorating risk backdrop, surging oil prices, and high U.S. Treasury yields, despite the Reserve Bank of India's ongoing intervention.
- High oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
- Reserve Bank of India's currency intervention strategies.
- Factors contributing to the rupee's weakening outlook.
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to open weaker on Wednesday, as a deteriorating risk backdrop and high oil prices reinforce the currency’s underlying negative near-term bias.
The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 95.75 to 95.80 range, traders said, compared with 95.68 on Tuesday. Brent crude is nearing $92 a barrel, while high US Treasury yields are weighing on risk appetite.
Oil prices were up for the fourth straight day amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran and insisted the strait was open, contradicting Iran’s assertion that the critical waterway remained closed to shipping.
The rise in crude is spurring inflation concerns and pushing US Treasury yields higher.
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007.
For the rupee, the pressure from oil and US yields comes at a time when it is already facing stress. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to bring forward by a month the deadline for its discounted foreign-currency swap facility for deposits raised from non-resident Indians has soured near-term sentiment for the rupee.
The rupee is facing pressure from multiple fronts now, a currency trader at a private-sector bank said. While the Reserve Bank of India is absorbing the pressure, the underlying demand for dollars is “very high”.
The rupee is likely to remain biased lower, he added, with traders watching whether the RBI steps up intervention near the 95.80-96.00 area.
The RBI has been selling dollars daily in recent sessions to support the rupee, helping ease pressure on the currency.
The intervention has kept the rupee’s decline measured while capping volatility, allowing the currency to adjust to renewed pressure from higher oil prices in an orderly manner.