KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during August, with the biggest shortfall expected in Punjab and Sindh, while higher temperatures may increase heat stress, glacier melt and the risk of floods in northern areas, Pakistan Meteorological Department’s monthly outlook said on Friday.
The forecast, prepared using outputs from 10 reliable global seasonal prediction models, said the current positive phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to continue throughout August. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has also shifted to a positive phase and is likely to remain positive during the forecast period.
Based on these climate conditions, the PMD expects below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country. The strongest rainfall deficit is forecast over northeastern and central Punjab, extending into adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir, as well as southeastern Sindh.
A pronounced likelihood of below-normal rainfall is expected over central and southern Pakistan, including Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and most parts of Balochistan. In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining parts of Kashmir are likely to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall during August.
The PMD also forecasts above-normal temperatures across the country. The highest temperature departures are expected over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, central and northeastern Punjab, adjoining parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir, eastern Balochistan and western Sindh.
The department warned that below-normal rainfall could reduce water availability, increasing dependence on reservoirs and groundwater for agriculture. It said the reduced rainfall may not be enough to meet irrigation requirements for seasonal vegetables and Kharif crops, particularly in Sindh and Punjab, making supplemental irrigation necessary.
Despite the expected rainfall deficit, isolated heavy downpours may still occur. These could trigger flash floods in the mountainous areas of Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, urban flooding in major metropolitan cities, and hill torrents in southern Punjab and Balochistan.
The outlook said above-normal temperatures over Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, combined with near-normal rainfall, could accelerate snow and glacier melt in upper catchments. The additional meltwater, along with rainfall runoff, may increase river flows, raising the risk of riverine flooding in major rivers, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods and landslides in mountainous and other vulnerable areas. The PMD further warned that long dry spells between rainfall events could significantly increase heat stress, especially across the plains of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
It said sharp temperature differences across regions may also generate strong winds, dust storms, thunderstorms and hailstorms, which could damage seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards. Farmers have been advised to take precautionary measures to protect standing crops.
The department also cautioned that dengue outbreaks are possible in flood-affected and poorly drained urban and low-lying areas.
Advising the public, the PMD urged farmers to check its weather advisories before planning irrigation or harvesting, while travellers and tourists were asked to remain cautious during rainfall events.
Reviewing weather conditions during July, the PMD said Pakistan received nearly normal to below-normal rainfall, with a clear north-south contrast. Gilgit-Baltistan recorded above-normal, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and most parts of Punjab received near-normal rainfall. In contrast, most areas of Sindh and Balochistan remained drier than normal.
A few isolated heavy downpours, mainly over northeastern Punjab, Kashmir and adjoining parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, caused flash floods and urban flooding during the month. Temperatures remained near normal to slightly above normal across most parts of the country, with the largest positive temperature anomalies recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by Balochistan.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026