Pakistan’s exporters and policymakers are frustrated, troubled, and disenchanted because exports just do not seem to increase.
Pakistan has a pretty solid textile base, the IT sector is zooming up exports, rich natural resources are aplenty, manpower exports include genuine job seekers as well as those who decided on an exodus for varied reasons, and a number of Task Forces set up to come up with strategies to get the nation out of export stagnation. What is hampering the march towards export targets as envisaged in various visions, prognostications, and Strategic Trade Policies?
Pakistan was to achieve USD35 billion six years ago and USD57 billion last year but is stuck between USD30 and USD32 billion. Pakistan’s exports to the European Union were USD9 billion in January-June 2026, absorbing 28 percent of total exports.
The European Union consists of 27 countries having 450 million inhabitants, representing around 5.5 percent of the global population. However, the Sword of Damocles of GSP Plus is ominously dangling over the export regime and the EU is ringing the alarm bell by demanding factual reporting of compliance of the current 27 conditionalities.
The textile associations have never sat together at any brainstorming seminar or conference and planned their GSP Plus strategy. This is what this writer refers to as “retailer mind-set”, meaning wait for the customer instead of hard sell and pragmatic promotion at the doorsteps of the importers. It is worthwhile to note that just Bangladesh’s textile exports to the EU are three times more than Pakistan’s.
China supposedly should have been a substantial market for Pakistan, and the exporters could have cashed in on the “higher than the mountain, deeper than the sea, and sweeter than honey” relationship. Sad fact is that exports to China are less than 10 percent of total exports; just merely USD3 billion.
What is stopping exporters to go full force and market products, services, minerals, and commodities in China? Complacency or incompetence? Have they gone through the 313 items that China allows duty free for Pakistan? Or, are they comfortable only with North American or European markets?
The yarn spinners are contented with selling USD450 million worth of cotton yarn while APTMA could have energized the closed mills to commence production and tap the Chinese market. Seafood exports are between USD200-225 million while there is huge scope if exporters revamp their plants, modernize them, comply with prescribed standards, procure latest trawlers and equipment, and reach for a billion or so easily. Again, there’s complacency if not vision.
However, minerals such as copper, ore, slag, and ash, etc., account for nearly USD1 billion and the potential is enormous.
Pakistan is among the top five or six growers of sesame while world demand, and especially in China, is scaling up.
China is the world’s largest sesame-importing nation, consuming around 1.50 million tons a year while producing 320,000-325,000 tons. Hence the field is wide open for Pakistani exporters of agricultural products. In 2025, there was a surge in demand from China, and enterprising Pakistani exporters jumped on the bandwagon to cater to this demand.
Fortunately, there was a bumper sesame crop last two years and Pakistan exported more than 325,000 tons just to China and earned USD375-380 million in 2025. However, in 2024, the value and quantity was higher.
The downside is that this year, the sowing area has declined 20 percent to 12 million from 15 million acres. One reason was the devastating floods that affected sesame growing areas, forcing farmers to abandon plans to grow sesame.
The latest addition in non-traditional export to China is in donkey products, such as meat, bones, and hides.
The Prime Ministers of China and Pakistan have agreed on a target of 200,000 donkey products annually. It took one dynamic Chinese entrepreneur to set up a slaughterhouse, of all places, in Gwadar and has commenced exports to his motherland.
The current international prices are USD6,500 per tonne for meat, USD1,700 per tonne for bones, and USD11,500 per tonne for hides. Donkey hides are essential for the gelatin called ejiao that is used for pharmaceutical products. One can do the calculations.
The above narrative primarily focuses on EU and China but there is one Continent that is still virgin territory for Pakistani exporters. Africa. There is a Look Africa Policy document somewhere in the Commerce Ministry waiting to be seriously implemented. There are 54 fully recognized sovereign countries in Africa according to the United Nations, but Pakistan exports not more than USD2.40 billion of which 50 percent is rice. Individual companies on their own traverse the Continent doing their trade independently.
Even selling recycled clothes. Official trade with Afghanistan has been affected due to the volatile situation and now less than 1,000 containers per month move across the border. Pakistani exporters are waiting at the starting line to dash into Iran if and when the dark clouds of war drift away.
One swallow does not make an export summer, unfortunately and pessimistically. And there are examples galore of over-confidence, muddying up policies, creating unwarranted hype, and resorting to forecasts of tremendous increase in exports, and obfuscating global marketplace realities. When pharmaceutical exports crossed USD450 million, everyone trumpeted that USD2 billion was now within reach in a year or so.
The Minister predicted USD30 billion while at the same time, the pharma industry was pleading to DRAP for rationalizing the prices keeping in view the abnormal increases in cost of production, especially API. No one took into account the 35 percent loss in exports due to closed borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pharmaceutical companies took the next step of signing MOUs with Chinese companies. Here too, how much would materialize on ground is a moot point.
Rice exporters were buoyant when they exported USD4 billion last year and a gala celebration was held to herald in a great future for Pakistani rice. This year exports went south and prices dipped.
In 2025, Pakistan became the largest exporter despite being the tenth largest producer, but was it their entrepreneurial spirit or did Lady Luck smiled on them? When sesame exports crossed USD375 million, there was a lot of chest-thumping that in 2026 onwards, sesame exports would reach the magical figure of USD1 billion without taking into account the acreage, without reading the global sesame market, and without pushing with full force extensive promotion and exploring new markets.
Pakistan is a textile producing nation but trails Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India. In fact, Pakistan does not even have an export Unicorn (USD1 billion exports as a benchmark).
When exporters and policymakers are still between a rock and a hard place, achieving the targets is still a pipedream.
Over USD320 billion in exporter refunds and working capital are reportedly stuck in the Federal Board of Revenue and other related government accounts. This massive backlog includes various heads like sales tax deferred, income tax credits, duty drawbacks, and other subsidies.
Building a strong brand for Pakistani products in the international markets, reducing wastage, enhancing efficiency and productivity, and doubling the per acre yield are imperative.
Advances in production, postharvest handling, processing, and logistical technologies can enable manufacturers, mining companies, and agriculture sector to compete with confidence. Physical infrastructure and transportation are perennial roadblocks towards exportable prospects.
Deficiencies and inconsistencies in quality of products and inadequate export promotion are also hindering growth too. Change is imperative and not relying just on one-off achievements. Yes, one swallow does not make an export summer.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
The writer is President Employers Federation of Pakistan