EDITORIAL: Flood management depends upon one principle above all others: timely information. Rivers do not respect political boundaries, and downstream countries rely upon upstream data to prepare reservoirs, manage barrages, issue evacuation warnings and protect lives. That system only functions when both sides honour their obligations.
Pakistan’s flood managers therefore found themselves confronting an alarming reality this week when a sudden surge in the River Chenab arrived without prior notification from India, precisely when bilateral communication on river management has already been severely disrupted. The consequences extend far beyond one episode of high water.
The latest surge followed torrential rains in India-held Kashmir that pushed the Chenab briefly to around 180,000 cusecs, lifting it into the medium flood category.
Pakistani irrigation officials stated that no advance information regarding upstream flows or rainfall had been received, despite the obvious importance of such data for downstream planning. With further monsoon activity forecast over the coming days, uncertainty has become an additional hazard alongside the floodwaters themselves.
This is exactly the situation that the Indus Waters Treaty was designed to prevent.
For decades, regardless of political tensions elsewhere, both countries maintained technical communication on river flows because hydrology demands cooperation even when diplomacy falters. India’s unilateral suspension of treaty mechanisms and the interruption of routine data-sharing have therefore introduced unnecessary risks into an already difficult monsoon season.
Rivers cannot be managed through political signalling; they require continuous exchange of accurate information if downstream populations are to be protected.
Pakistan has repeatedly pointed out that New Delhi’s approach violates both the letter and spirit of the treaty. Recent events illustrate why those concerns deserve serious attention. Flood forecasting becomes significantly more difficult when upstream information is unavailable or delayed. Reservoir operations become more complicated.
Emergency planning loses valuable time. Every missing hour reduces the margin available to protect communities living downstream.
That reality demands a practical response from Pakistan.
If timely upstream information can no longer be relied upon, the country’s own preparedness must become considerably more rigorous. Drainage systems should be cleared before they are tested by heavy rainfall rather than afterwards.
Urban stormwater channels, nullahs and irrigation canals should remain free of solid waste throughout the monsoon season. There have already been numerous reports and images from across the country showing waterways clogged with garbage, plastic waste and construction debris. During periods of intense rainfall these blockages quickly transform manageable water flows into destructive urban flooding.
The response, therefore, should err on the side of caution.
District administrations, municipal authorities and irrigation departments should assume that river conditions may change more rapidly than previously anticipated. Barrages, embankments and drainage infrastructure require continuous monitoring.
Local governments should intensify waste removal campaigns in flood-prone areas and ensure that emergency equipment remains fully operational. Public awareness also matters. Communities living near rivers and seasonal streams must receive timely information and cooperate in keeping waterways unobstructed.
None of these measures eliminates the need for international cooperation.
Pakistan should continue pressing for restoration of the technical communication mechanisms envisaged under the Indus Waters Treaty because effective river management ultimately serves both countries. Floodwaters released without warning do not advance diplomatic objectives. They simply increase the danger faced by civilians downstream.
The broader lesson is equally important. Climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and less predictable across South Asia. That reality demands more cooperation, more transparency and more data sharing, not less.
Weakening established mechanisms for hydrological coordination at precisely the moment they are becoming more necessary runs contrary to both common sense and regional stability.
Pakistan cannot control the decisions taken across the border. It can, however, control the seriousness with which it prepares at home. If uncertainty has become part of the new reality, preparedness must become equally uncompromising. Floods are difficult enough to manage with complete information. Attempting to manage them, while effectively planning in the dark, leaves no room whatsoever for complacency.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026