US natgas prices rise on forecasts for higher demand next week

NEW YORK: U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Friday on forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected, including the increase in feedgas at Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas after shutting earlier in the week.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.881 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 12.

For the week, the front-month was on track to drop for a fourth week in a row for the first time since February, falling about 2% so far this week.

In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies in coming months, the premium of futures for March over April 2027 fell to a record low of around 17 cents per mmBtu.

The industry calls the March-April spread the “widow-maker” because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.

Traders use the March-April and October-November spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.5% above normal during the week ended July 17, up from 6.4% during the previous week.

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 1, forcing power generators to keep burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 111.5 bcfd for the next few weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.4 bcfd so far in July, the same as in June, remaining below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.