Indian rupee slide poised for fleeting reprieve after oil rout extends
- The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 95.14-94.18 range, per traders, after settling at 95.2475 on Wednesday
The Indian rupee is set to open marginally higher due to falling oil prices, but this relief is expected to be short-lived amidst weaker Asian peers and rising U.S. yields, following a significant decline.
- Rupee's expected opening and recent significant decline.
- Reserve Bank of India's intervention attempts.
- Impact of falling oil prices and US-Iran peace talks.
- Rising U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve comments.
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to open marginally higher on Thursday, aided by a further drop in oil prices, though traders expect the relief to be short-lived amid weakness in Asian peers and higher U.S. yields.
The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 95.14-94.18 range, per traders, after settling at 95.2475 on Wednesday.
The currency fell 0.6% on Wednesday, its largest decline in three weeks, breaching the 94.80-95.00 zone that traders had viewed as a key near-term support level.
Market participants had expected the Reserve Bank of India to defend that zone, citing evidence from recent sessions that suggested the central bank had been intervening to protect the 95 level.
While the RBI was seen selling dollars around 94.75 on Wednesday, once it stepped back, a wave of stop-loss orders, coupled with weak cues from Asian markets, accelerated the rupee’s decline.
Interbank “did not expect 95 to be breached, let alone see it test 95.25. Now that it has happened, the underlying trend (for dollar/rupee) is higher,” a currency trader at a private bank said.
“Lower oil prices are obviously positive (for the rupee). However, that’s not what’s driving the market right now.”
The drop in oil prices, triggered by the US-Iran peace deal, showed no signs of abating. Brent crude fell 1% on Wednesday and dropped a further 1% in Asian trading, slipping below $71 a barrel.
The drop came amid remarks from Qatar that Iran and the United States had made “positive progress” in indirect talks concluded on Wednesday, with discussions centred on the Strait of Hormuz.
US yields bite
Most Asian currencies weakened on Thursday, weighed by rising US Treasury yields ahead of the US June payrolls report due later in the day.
Bond investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that reinforced a focus on containing inflation, while digesting the US ISM manufacturing and private payrolls data.