EDITORIAL: The Finance Division has yet to upload its May 2026 Economic Update and Outlook, a document that would have provided current statistics critical for an assessment of the state of the economy for use in the formulation of the budget 2026-27. This newspaper requested a copy of the document a fortnight ago and was inexplicably informed that the Division was busy with the budget and would upload it on the website in ‘due course’. It is relevant to note that tomorrow, on 1 July, the June monthly update and outlook would also be due together with the May report.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) did continue to upload data pertaining to limited aspects of the economy; notably, the trade balance (exports and imports), remittance inflows, foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP and commercial banks, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and Consumer Price Index.
However, what has led many to argue that the failure to upload the May outlook may have been deliberate is the fact that these two sources of data have not yet uploaded key data for May 2026, including large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, credit to private sector, agriculture credit and non-tax revenue.
In addition, Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR’s) actual collections for the month of May, with a reported projected shortfall of around one trillion rupees by 30 June 2026 from what was targeted at 13.979 trillion rupees - a downward revision from the budgeted 14.307 trillion rupees - has perhaps not been taken into account on the primary and fiscal balance claims for the outgoing year with obvious implications on the projections in the budget for 2026-27. This could have been a vital element in the government’s recent decision to keep oil prices stable in spite of a decline in the international price that necessitated raising the petroleum levy with the objective of raising non-tax revenue to meet the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) upfront harsh conditions for the outgoing fiscal year.
There is, therefore, a serious concern that the budget was based on dated statistics, dated back to April, when the country’s economic performance had not yet absorbed or begun to show increased fragility due to the negative impact of the US-Israel attack on Iran which began on 28 February.
The Finance Ministry has, under its administrative control, numerous departments and divisions, whose terms of reference are not specific to one task at any one period of time.
In other words, the excuse that the Division was unable to write and upload the report because it was engaged in the budget formulation is not tenable and should not be accepted by the Cabinet. There is, therefore, an urgent need for the Cabinet to take cognizance of this serious lapse and take appropriate mitigating measures.
What has become a tradition, however, is for an administration to sanction special reward, over and above the due salary, to those engaged in budget making, a reward that is baffling for the simple reason that it is in the terms of reference of those engaged in this exercise.
And what makes the grant of a monetary reward even more unfathomable is the fact that the budget was reviewed in great detail by the IMF staff, a condition of the ongoing programme loan, and the domestic formulators input was even more severely limited than in years gone by when the country was not on a programme.
It is hoped that monetary rewards for undertaking or proposing measures that are the responsibility of any individual or individuals must not be a part of a policy and merit-based pay raises must be a function of their unbiased performance evaluation.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026