Brazil’s soymeal export push challenges Argentina’s dominance

BRAZIL: Brazil is rapidly closing in on Argentina’s dominance in soybean meal exports, threatening the competitiveness of the South American country’s top export product as weaker meal prices and shifting oil markets squeeze processors’ margins, according to a report released on Friday.

Brazil is projected to export more than 12.3 million metric tons of soybean meal in the first half of 2026, versus an estimated 13.3 million tons for Argentina, according to the report by the Rosario grains exchange, underscoring how the gap between the top two exporters is narrowing.

The report said Argentina’s lead over Brazil could shrink to about 8percent by June, from 86percent in 2021 and 23percent in the first half of 2025, as Brazil expands crushing capacity while Argentine processing remains largely stagnant.

Brazil’s advance has been helped by growth in its biodiesel industry, which has lifted domestic demand for soybean oil and encouraged more crushing, increasing soybean meal supplies available for export, the report said.

That poses a direct challenge for Argentina, where soybean meal is the country’s leading export product and a key determinant of domestic soybean prices.

Argentina’s crushing margins are becoming increasingly dependent on soybean oil prices, the report argued, as weaker soybean meal values erode a traditional source of processor income.

With meal export prices down 10percent from their May peak, any further decline in soybean oil could further squeeze processors’ buying power and limit support for local soybean prices.