Economic Survey 2025-26: Increasing demand, evolving climatic exerting significant pressure on water resources
ISLAMABAD: The Economic Survey 2025-26 has warned that increasing demand, coupled with evolving climatic and hydrological conditions, is exerting significant pressure on Pakistan’s water resources, posing serious risks to economic growth and social wellbeing.
According to the survey (July–March FY2025-26), per capita annual water availability has declined to below 1,000 cubic meters, highlighting the urgent need for sustained and coordinated water resource management.
The report underscores that irrigation remains critical for enhancing agricultural productivity, ensuring food security, stabilizing farm incomes, and reducing vulnerability to monsoon variability and river flow fluctuations. Given agriculture’s key role in employment, rural livelihoods, and national output, the performance of the irrigation sector is vital for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth.
Pakistan receives, on average, 138.4 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually from its western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, and Kabul—and eastern rivers—Ravi and Sutlej. The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), ranked as the fourth largest contiguous irrigation network globally, forms the backbone of the country’s agricultural economy.
The system comprises three major reservoirs—Tarbela Dam, Mangla Dam, and Chashma Barrage—with a combined live storage capacity of about 13.44 MAF. It also includes 19 barrages, 12 link canals with a total capacity of 143,000 cusecs, an extensive network of main and branch canals, and two siphons. Spanning nearly 64,000 kilometers, the system irrigates approximately 47 million acres, supporting national food security and agricultural production.
Seasonal rainfall, including hill torrents and intense storm events, serves as an important supplementary water source. The survey notes that effective utilization through small dams, watershed management, and aquifer recharge can significantly enhance water availability and strengthen the resilience of rain-fed agriculture.
Groundwater remains another crucial source, contributing around 50 MAF annually, particularly in regions with limited surface water. However, its sustainability is becoming a major concern. In Sindh, aquifers are largely brackish, limiting their usability, while across the Indus Basin, groundwater extraction increasingly exceeds natural recharge rates. As a result, the aquifer system is now among the most stressed in the world.
The survey identifies multiple factors contributing to water stress, including limited storage capacity, transboundary water challenges, gaps in water accounting and allocation, conveyance losses, rapid population growth, climate change impacts, glacier melt, water pollution, rising urban demand, waterlogging and salinity, and financing constraints for major infrastructure projects.
Rainfall patterns during the review period showed significant variability. The monsoon season (July–September 2025) recorded 172.8 mm rainfall, 22.6 percent above normal. However, post-monsoon rainfall (October–December 2025) declined by 19.7 percent, while winter rainfall (January–March 2026) was 9.6 percent below average.
In response to rainfall variability, the government has approved rainwater harvesting provisions under the Building Code of Pakistan, marking a key step toward water conservation.
Canal head withdrawals during Kharif 2025 stood at 60.56 MAF, slightly higher than 60.48 MAF in Kharif 2024. During Rabi 2025-26, withdrawals increased by 10.7 percent to 31.35 MAF compared to 29.43 MAF in the previous year.
The survey cautions that water scarcity poses serious risks, particularly for underdeveloped regions where limited water availability directly affects agricultural activity and livelihoods.
To address these challenges, the government is prioritizing investment in modern water conservation techniques, including rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge, lining of water channels, and adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems. It also emphasizes the need for improved management of hill torrents and floods, enhanced water productivity, enforcement against excessive groundwater extraction, and construction of new dams to expand storage capacity.
The report stresses that effective implementation of the National Water Policy, strengthened provincial legislation, and timely investment in priority water infrastructure will be essential to ensure sustainable water management and long-term economic stability.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026