Expana lifts outlook for EU 2025/26 wheat exports and 2026/27 crop

PARIS: Expana raised its projection for European Union soft wheat exports for the current 2025/26 season due to accelerating Polish shipments to Africa and lifted its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2026/27 on better prospects in Romania.

The commodity data firm pegged EU soft wheat output in 2026/27 at 129.2 million metric tons, up from 128.8 million tons in its previous monthly report but down 7.6 million tons from the exceptional 2025/26 harvest.

The forecast is still above the five-year average, it said. Harvesting of wheat and barley in the EU began in early June, with first cuttings of barley in Spain showing mixed results far from last year’s excellent levels.

Expana cut its EU barley production forecast for 2026/27 by 0.4 million tons from last month to 52.3 million tons, mainly because of Spain. That would be 4.8 million tons below 2025/26 but 2.2 million tons above 2024/25.

The firm said it still expected good yields in Romania and Bulgaria, adding that an upward revision for wheat and barley production in Germany was possible later. Concerns remained over yields in regions near the Baltic Sea due to a lack of rain in recent months.

For maize, Expana lowered its 2026/27 production forecast to 57.6 million tons from 58.0 million tons seen in May, due to a cut in its area estimate. The crop would be 0.9 million tons above 2025/26 but 1.5 million tons below 2024/25.

Expana raised its forecast of EU soft wheat export for the current 2025/26 season ending on June 30, to 27.9 million tons from 27.3 million.

EU soft wheat exports in 2026/27 were expected to rise from 2025/26, supported by large carry-in stocks and probably weaker competition from the United States, Argentina and Canada. Barley exports next season were expected to fall because of a smaller EU harvest and good crops in importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East.